Lower Units in Danger at Delta

It’s no secret that the Louisiana Delta isn’t exactly the most navigable waterway on the planet. I’ve been fortunate enough to fish the Delta and I can attest that the place is a virtual minefield of hazards for boaters. And it’s not just your usual reservoir hazards like stumps or rocks. There are old gas wells [I’m talking big metal pipes], parts of old duck blinds and all sorts of hurricane-spawned debris to watch out for.

As if the brackish bass haven wasn’t sketchy enough to maneuver, Classic anglers now have one other potential risk they’ll have to consider next week: low water. No, let me rephrase. SUPER-DUPER-LOW water.

For those of you who haven’t spent much time fishing coastal estuaries or delta systems, it’s tough to truly communicate what can happen to these bodies of water during the winter. The hard north winds associated with passing fronts literally blow the water out of the marsh system and into the Gulf where it’ll stay until winds reside and the incoming tide brings the water back inland.

It happens every year and it’s usually not a big deal as anglers know where they can go when things get low. But this year things are different. According to this article at NOLA.com, water levels are running at least 3-feet lower than they were last summer and many local anglers are saying tide levels are the lowest they’ve seen in over a decade [for what it’s worth, we’re experiencing the same thing in Texas].

Some highlights from the NOLA.com piece:

> “[Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike] appear to have increased subsidence in the marshes.

> “…continued degradation of the marshes east and south of Leeville [right in the heart of Classic country] has left mostly open water between that fishing village and the barrier islands. During a fall and winter of strong cold fronts and north winds, water levels have continued to fall.”

> “Even Lake Pontchartrain water levels are the lowest veterans can remember.”

> “Recently, sheriff’s departments in St. Bernard, Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes and the rescue units in the Department of Wildlife and Fisheries have been working overtime to rescue fishermen stranded on mud flats.”

> “Cold, strong north winds, little rainfall and low tidal ranges have combined to make fishermen consider whether the risk is worth the reward.”

Let me tell you something. When those crazy-@$$ cajuns are thinking twice about takin’ out the pirogue and chasin ‘dem sac-a-lait [that’s crappie to those who don’t speak swamp], the water must be pretty dang low.

What all this means is that you can pretty much bet that somebody is either going to get stuck, knock a hole in their boat or take off a lower unit at next week’s Classic. The insanely low water and [omni]presence of debris is a factor that will likely impact this Classic just as strongly as a potential cold front or the oncoming spawn.

A Bit of Analysis

The Classic competitors haven’t been on the water since the Dec. 13 pre-practice cutoff. With the frequency and strength of the cold fronts we’ve had in the south between then and now, it’s highly likely the anglers will be looking at much less water when they launch for the official practice. This may force some anglers to split their time between actually pre-fishing with baits in the water and re-mapping a “safe” route to and from their destinations. It could also sway the advantage meter back in the locals’ direction. Hackney is a name that keeps coming up. Keep an eye on Cliff Pace, too.

I think all this adds up to favoring three guys: KVD, Ike and Skeet. Why? Because I consider these three to be among the best in the field when it comes to analyzing a slew of changing factors and developing a pattern or discovering an area that is likely to replenish with fish day after day. I know I’m not going out on a limb by throwing any of these names out there, but the wackier the tides, winds and temperatures get, the higher these guys move up my list as favorites.

Anybody want to put an over/under on how many guys get stranded or stuck over the course of the Classic? I’ll set the number at 3 1/2.